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Archive for May, 2014

Wen Tiejun The 8 Crises

Secular patterns in CHinese adoption of capitalism in which each crisis is diffused by relying on the agricultural rural sector to soak up inflation and the failed investments of the urban areas.

2008= 25 million lay offs in China. Huge social source of unrest, investment in country-side as he recommended allowed the absorption of the unemployed. But China at the same time is short for labor, it needs to import labor from NK.

There are 8 crises in the history of Chinese devpt:

1960-1962

1968-1970

1974-1976

1979-1981

1988-1989

1993-1994

1998-1999

2008-2009

Each investment cycle turns into 2 debt crises.

Urbanization has high risks, when risk turns to crisis, rural base softens the crisis. If we destroy rural China there is no place for soft landing.

Government critics say preventing people from going to urban areas is violation of HR.

Every crisis creates unemployment which is turn creates social unrest. cost of capital center is defrayed to the rural area.

The 1982 boom is not a result of the market reforms but from the social foundations set in 1960, the movement to send the unemployed to the countryside under the guise of reeducation could not have been done individually

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Random points

How did the silver get to China if as Braudel says they had no grand finance fairs or markets, or if as Arrighi says they shut down all but one port?

 

In 1960 Iraq, Egypt and Lebanon had growing economies. Iraq had a growing economy till 1990. Saddam provided education, healthcare etc… How accurate of a picture is this? What caused the decline of this growth trend?

 

Braudel, in the Hppkins symposium book p88, the origin of counterfeit labels and labels of origin like “made in china” have parallels with the “Venetian Seal” with Levantine traders trying to fake venetian seals to get higher prices. Noting that the Italians had previously faked levantine seals to sell higher in Europe.

 

A lot of articles seem to be returning to the pre-state human societies to make claims about contemporary human politics. Is it useful to go back to the pre-state past for insights into the present? An example is in justice where we look at behavior to understand what we think is just or unjust at a universal level. Another example is the use of the “natural” adjhjective to argue for a particular vision of sexuality. It isn’t useful, we do not actually know about living styles but can only speculate, we don’t know if primal behavior is good for us today or if it works, we do not know if it is actually universal and assume there is no culture in the past, 

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East India Company

As a side-note, the official language of the EIC in India was Persian until the 18th century (I think). All officers had to be trained in Persian. This gave a large inflow of persian poetry into English literature which led to a golden age of English poetry.

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